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Four-quarter expected new loans more than 1.8 trillion

"October late began, four line added credit began surged, credit gate emergent loose signs", and "in currency policy fine-tuning of background Xia, is expected to annual added loan will in 7.5 trillion yuan around", and "11, and December added credit or will respectively reached 700 billion yuan", and "Bank in public market continuous three week net return zhihou, first achieved net put"   credit loose of signal constantly see all media, "fine-tuning" into four quarter credit guess of keywords.

Societe Generale Chief Economist, Lu zhengwei pointed out in an interview with the securities journal, four quarters does have some loose credit policies, the Central Bank's open market operations have confirmed this point. "But the scale of increase, is expected to reach 700 billion or 800 billion yuan per month increments, I doubt it. "He said, on the one hand, in the case of deposits continued to flee, under pressure from loan and capital adequacy, banks credit growth could not be achieved. "On the other hand, the size of 700 billion or 800 billion of new credit every month, this teaser is not a good thing for the Chinese economy. ”

banking analysts interviewed think September increase of 470 billion yuan of RMB loans, a bit too low in October, will definitely increase. Expect four quarter more than 1.8 trillion yuan in new loans, but bank credit difficult word "collective mobilization."

four-quarter credit speculation: fine-tuning how "micro"

Although a number of analysts have four quarters of credit will fine-tune, but specific "degree" but each have their own point of view.

a few days ago, Premier Wen Jiabao stressed that macroeconomic policies to "timely and appropriate" to "preset tuning" to maintain reasonable growth of money and credit, credit policy with industrial policy better, and earnestly maintain pressure to ensure funding needs of the State key projects under construction or expansion, focused on supporting SMEs in the real economy, especially in line with industrial policies, support livelihood projects particularly in low-income housing projects.

this was interpreted by market release credit would loose signal. The industry believes that, according to the current state of monetary policy to fine-tune, expects new loans at 7.5 trillion yuan. This means that four-quarter credit policy is expected to remain relatively loose credit is expected to be the next two months at more than 600 billion yuan a month.

macro Chao Jiang, analyst guotai Junan securities said in a media interview, in late October the Bank loan growth accelerating, the Central Bank will loosen credit controls in the fourth quarter. 11, December or will reach 700 billion yuan of new credit, new credit per cent increased in consecutive positive growth for the first time this year, since November, or will significantly loose credit policies.

CITIC analyst Yang Rong said, if we consider the directed easing effects, it is expected that new Yuan loans of 7.5 trillion for the year, 10, 11, in December in March about 600 billion yuan in new loans a month.

in open market operations, the Bank also appeared to confirm credit loosening of signals.

recently, in the open market, the Bank issued 10 billion yuan of one-year Central Bank bills, the interest rate down 1.1 points, from 3.584% to 3.5733%. It was November 10, 109 billion yuan due on the open market this week, the Central Bank drained a total Fund of 42 billion yuan, a net release of 67 billion yuan. 10th, the Shanghai inter-bank lending rates continued to remain low, contrasting with the previous liquidity in times of stress.

the "four-quarter credit policy will fine-tune, slightly loose in September, new credit is too low. "A brokerage analyst told reporters. "But will loose to what extent, it is hard to say. ”

Central Bank data showed September RMB loans increased by 470 billion yuan, compared with 131.1 billion yuan in less, hit a 21-month low.

the "four-quarter credit will indeed be eased, but not massive, the size of single months can reach 700 billion or 800 billion yuan, I doubt it. "Lu zhengwei said. "Sharp is not a good thing for the Chinese economy. Tighten or loosen a short time too quickly, it is terrible. ”

Bank credit mention "collective loose": loan and capital adequacy ratios under pressure

"credit to fine-tune policy is basically directed loose, mainly concentrated in small business loans, housing loans and a number of projects under construction. "National securities analyst Zhang Jinghui told the newspaper.

"not a massive loosening of credit, because not every bank has this condition. Because many banks under pressure from loan and capital adequacy. "Lu zhengwei said.

he said that, in addition to dedicated to small business loans other than financial debt, more affordable housing and a number of projects under construction, and a number of banks face pressure to loan and capital adequacy, in the case of loss of deposits, not all banks will appear somewhat loose.

three quarterly data show that Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Minsheng 3 Bank loan beyond the regulatory requirements of 75% red line, row, China, CITIC, Shenzhen Development Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Everbright Bank and Societe Generale all over 70%, the close supervision "red line".

capital adequacy ratio, five lines in addition to ICBC, a capital adequacy ratio of the remaining four, or core capital adequacy ratio declined. Statistics show that by the end of September, the bank capital adequacy ratio 11.85%, the core capital adequacy ratio 9.36%, from the end of last year rose by 0.26% and 0.39%. BOC capital adequacy  12.84%, up 0.26  points at the end of last year; the core capital adequacy ratio  9.92% , 0.17  of a percentage point lower than late last year. CCB's capital adequacy ratio was 12.58%, 0.1% compared the end of last year, the core capital adequacy ratio was 10.57%, increased by 0.17% over the end of last year. Two declined, its capital adequacy ratio and core capital adequacy ratio was 11.89% and 9.24% respectively, representing a decrease of 0.47 and 0.13%, respectively.

small Bank, China Everbright Bank's capital adequacy ratio was 10.93%, 0.09% lower than the end of last year; core capital adequacy ratio was 8.24%, up 0.09% over the previous year. Nanjing bank capital adequacy ratio and core capital adequacy rates were 11.67% and 10.89% respectively declined 2.96 and 2.86% at the end of last year. Spdb's capital adequacy ratio was 11.24%, the core capital adequacy ratio was 9.01%, respectively 0.78% and 0.36% lower than late last year.

Orient securities analyst Jin-Lin said in a media interview, fine-tuning within short time, is not expected to have any direction. If the fine-tuning of monetary policy, might loan some favorable regulatory requirements, or to help the banks in Exchange for some lines.

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